The red TWh numbers are the approximate TWhs of annual electricity generation required in Ontario by 2050 to replace existing fossil fueled sectors. (as of 2017). For example, the gasoline and diesel required to run all the vehicles in the transportation sector could be replaced by about 45 TWh of electricity. The much higher efficiency of electric cars and heat pumps means that much less energy is required to provide the same distance in travel or space heating energy than when using fossil fuels. In the case of gasoline vehicles for instance, about 80% to 90% of the energy in the fuel is wasted as heat that goes out the tailpipe as hot exhaust, and from the radiator as heat transferred to cooler air.
Ingredients for Decarbonizing Ontario
To do our bit to limit global warming, Ontario needs to be near carbon neutral by 2050.
By 2050, in order to have net zero GHG emissions, Ontario needs to virtually eliminate the use of natural gas, fuel oil, diesel and gasoline fuels. To achieve this goal, virtually all ground transportation, building heating and cooling and many industrial processes will need to operate on very low to zero carbon electricity. This will increase electricity consumption in Ontario. Estimates of how much more electricity we’ll need by 2050 vary. Some studies estimate an approximate doubling of the electricity generation by 2050 - from about 137 TWh in 2019, to 250 - 300 TWh by 2050. In March 2024 the newest IESO Annual Planning Outlook report forecasts 245 TWh demand by 2050, and while the report does include 11,500,000 electric vehicles in Ontario by 2050 it does not include the complete elimination of natural gas for heating. If aggressive energy conservation and advanced smart grid functionality is also part of our 2050 grid and natural gas heating is eliminated, it is reasonable to expect the annual needs to be somewhere in the 245 to 300 TWh range. However, much work needs to be done to provide more confidence to the forecasts. Realistically, only the provincial government can demand and fund the level of effort to sharpen the forecast.It has not yet been demonstrated that carbon sequestration will be cost effective for electricity generation using natural gas, so a continuation of natural gas at any scale to 2050 is very unlikely. It means that in the 2050 timeframe, we must seriously plan for natural gas to not be a significant player in Ontario's generation mix.The good news is that Ontario did double the TWh of electricity generation between 1970 and 1990 from 62 TWh to 140 TWh. The last time however, much of the new capacity came from a huge and expensive nuclear build. Competitive options using wind, solar, and storage and demand management now exist, but have yet to be fully accepted as a lower cost option to replace the "firm" power that nuclear provides. As part of wind and solar playing a larger role in Ontario, the IESO will procure 5,000 MW of zero emitting generation to 2035, and this procurement is likely just one of several in that time frame. This time new electricity will come from expanded wind, solar and hydro, with various storage technologies and ideally some east-west sharing of generation capacity from Manitoba and/or Quebec.Millions of Electric Vehicles will be in Ontario by 2050 and collectively they represent an incredibly huge energy storage potential. The opportunities presented by millions of EVs as a storage system have yet to be presented publicly by the IESO. Hopefully they have some people looking at the storage and demand support opportunity of 11 million EVs.In 2019, Ontarion’s spent about $30B on gasoline, diesel and natural gas fossil fuels. Due to the vasly improved efficiency of EVs, a future electrified Ontario, even with significantly inflated electricity rates, will cost many billions less to operate annually. Large capital investment to install heat pumps and improve energy efficiency will be necessary, creating jobs in every community. Using electricity at 80%-95% efficiency to drive various electric EVs instead of gasoline and diesel engines at 15%-25% efficiency means much lower operating costs for vehicles. Heat pumps instead of resistance electric and propane heating will also save consumers billions in energy costs.Millions of electric cars will be made somewhere, Ontario's recent investments in EV and Battery plants bodes well for the jobs these facilities will create and also for the low GHG impact these plants will have when operatiing on Ontario's low carbon grid. We will all spend less in the long run and have cleaner air, quieter streets and be less dependent on energy imports and fluctuating fossil-fuel prices.Hydrogen produced by renewable energy may supply a small amount of the heating and transport (aircraft? TBD) energy demand but the cost as yet, looks unattractive. There is much hype around hydrogen, but the costs per unit of energy are still high. In a highly carbon constrained and regulated world, hydrogen may be competitive in applications such as steel and cement production and maybe aircraft. It's a work in progress, let's hope costs come down well below where they are at now.SMR (Small Modular Reactor) nuclear does not exist as prototype or commercialized technology in Canada. The very long timelines for SMRs to be commercialized means they will not provide a meaningful contribution to the many TWh required to embark on substantially decarbonizing Ontario by 2030 or even 2040. OPG has a plan to build a 300 MW SMR at the Darlington Nuclear site. The Globe and Mail reported a cost of $3B for the 300 MW SMR now contracted by OPG. That's about $10,000 per kW of generation. That's very high when compared to all other forms of electricity generation. Time will tell if this path is economical or acceptable to the public. The recent IESO direction to add 5,000 MW of non-emitting generation will help identify if the SMR path can be competitive against the ever decreasing costs of wind and solar with storage.